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How to reform the coal industry from the supply side?

Date:2015-11-28 15:20:17  Hits:607  Belong to:Focus

     For serious excess capacity of the coal industry, the supply side of the reform, we must first realize "clearing capacity" to establish exit mechanism and corporate staffing mineral resources compensation system, eliminating the backward, in order to protect the advanced!
     Every time I hear mention of coal outside the so-called "golden years", the heart is more of a "ancestors once wealthy, now very abjection" embarrassment. Over the past 10 years, it was relying on cheap access to resources and coal prices soaring and completion of primitive accumulation; but now coal prices plummeted, but it is the ordinary people in coal bear the pain of downsizing pay cut!
     However, 10 years for any person who is an important stage, accompanied by Chinese author recalled the 10 years of coal through bumpy road, and China discovered the world's coal is a "turned upside down" during the mixed feelings.
     First, 03--08, exports: wanted to say goodbye, but return, China's resources, global services
     2001 - When in 2003 an MBA at Nankai, after graduating change the industry had thought, after all, had already fought for many years in the coal industry, know the limitations of this industry. However, when in contact with other industries, "older (nearly 35 years), the lack of new business experience" and other factors become the soft underbelly, many foreign enterprises, private enterprises prefer to recruit young culture from the beginning, from the state-owned enterprises do not want to come out of the middle-aged people opportunities.
     Switch frustrated job, in 2004, I suddenly found coal and other resource industries fire up, private enterprises grow, international companies to enter the Chinese market, export has become an important factor in stimulating the development of the coal industry. As shown below, in 2003, China's coal export volume reached 93.18 million tons, when the country's output of 1.73 billion tons of coal, which means that 5.4 percent of Chinese coal exports, the export volume is seven times the amount of imports in the same year.
    At that time, strong exports not just coal, as well as coke. In 2004, the national export volume of 13.986 million tons of coke, coke production was 477 million tons the year, exports accounted for about 3 percent of national output.
    Strong resource exports east by the author in September 2004 entered the foreign companies, has engaged in the coal / coke and iron ore import export business in India, Japan and other markets. At that time, the international market shortage of mineral resources, international trade is gradually from chaos to formal, there have been in jail for violating the law during the hero of the bush. Was impressed then with Chinese companies in the export of coke, since site management confusion, coke mixed with a variety of wood, wire and other debris, and even dead rabbits, carefully picked out of the debris of the Japanese categories, taking pictures sent to exporters. The process we are constantly improving site management and improve product quality, and from Japanese companies learned a serious, thorough and so the spirit of excellence, improve their execution.
    06--07 years it entered the largest private coking enterprises, responsible for port and coke, coking coal procurement and shipment of Shanxi. In the meantime feel the rapid development of the coal industry nationwide, and also pay close attention to safety in production and the coal industry coking industry environmental pollution period, Shanxi governor because of several accidents and resigned. At the same time, private enterprise cost management and advanced planning and development impressed me.
2008, destined to be an important year in the development of coal, even "watershed." Blizzard beginning highlights the importance of energy security and coal, to July 2008, Datong excellent mixed FOB price hit 1,070 yuan / ton, a record high price! But after that the global financial crisis, despite drastic changes in the coal market. December 2008, Datong excellent mixed FOB prices plummeted to 650 yuan / ton.
    In 2008, exports of 45.43 million tons of coal, imported coal is higher than the last time. In the same year, 2008 coke export volume last year fell two percent, which means that Chinese coal began to "export to domestic sales."
   Second, 09--12 years, investment, imports: restructuring advisory and research services and the construction of coal imports
Along with pulling four trillion investment in 2009, China's coal exports from the country into the global import demand for the country, behind the rapid imported coal is careful study of various multinational companies for the Chinese market. I also follow the trend into the consulting industry, and then founded the "Coal Research Network" in 2010, working on the coal industry chain, to provide market research services to Australia, Canada, Indonesia and Mongolia coal import business, period, footprints all over the country each main origin of coal, distribution center and consumer, with respect to China's coal industry and the coal supply and demand has become more comprehensive and in-depth understanding.
    Five years ago, to help domestic coal giants to develop "second five" plan, when the core is still the looting of resources, scale, however, the problem encountered is how to determine the direction of rational coal conversion, in addition to coal, modern coal chemical industry into The main direction of the circular economy is the main path to achieve energy saving.
    Today, the "Thirteen Five Year Plan", the biggest change is to do subtraction, and "flesh" more pain harder!
    2012, is a turning point in China's coal market. Could it be a coincidence that the past 10 years, China's coal market changes is always synchronized with the Olympics. In 2012, China's economic slowdown, while investment in new mines come on stream early days, the excess pressure China coal previews, coal prices down, start with "coal golden years end" argument.
    Looking back, the hearts of everyone for coal supply capacity investment "second five" produced no end; and more ignored how much coal imports, will become a scourge; there are chances that the 2012 economic growth has bottomed after rebound.
   Third, 13--15 years, overcapacity, price: every year in mid-sad too, there is no bottom line without end
   After entering 2013, with coking coal, coke, coal and other futures market, China's main coal market is more diversified, electronic cash traded, brokered deal, electronic business platform and other marketing innovative models emerging, it is "your party Changba me play, "crowded.
    However, corresponding to the smoke of the coal market, prices continue to fall, the "amount insured", "Let the market price of insurance," and other words and sometimes noisy on dust, in fact, reflects the coal over behind the rest of the helpless.
   January 9, 2013, Bohai index 633 yuan, year on October 9, the index fell to 530 yuan, a drop of more than 100 yuan. January 8, 2014, Bohai index rebounded to 610 yuan, August 27 that year, the lowest value during the year fell to 478 yuan / ton, down more than 132 yuan. January 7 this year, 520 yuan Bohai index to start, to Nov. 18 to close at 375 yuan, 145 yuan cumulative decline / ton.
   No one can say whether it is now in the end? No one can tell us when it is dark heart? Based on the experience of so many years, it seems that still continues the logic is: the price is no minimum, only lower; industry is not difficult, only harder!
   November 7, the first main point, "International Energy Transformation Forum" held in Suzhou are: Energy Transformation requires strong control and reduce consumption of fossil fuels, especially coal consumption; a substantial increase in the proportion of renewable energy to meet the global green development of low-carbon requirements.
   Climate Conference in Paris on November 30 this year to December 11 was held as scheduled, the primary task of the global response to climate change is to reduce carbon emissions, coal production and consumption in China is a big country, further suppressing coal consumption is the trend.
   September 4, 2016 to 5th G20 summit will be held in Hangzhou, when "G20 blue" or the acceleration suppression coastal fossil energy consumption.
In short, citing CISA market view for next year, in 2016 the demand side few bright spots!
   In early April, she wrote, "it is time to bid farewell to coal," a text, causing some stir in the industry. Today, nearly seven months later, the situation seems to be worse than the original. Reminiscent of "old coal prices denounce Shenhua appeal equal competition," the news, in fact, Shenhua also do not want to drop, is forced; old coal prices high cost, burden, deserve sympathy, but that is the reason for withdrawal, rather than by government under the protection of "dead carry hard boil!"
    For serious excess capacity of the coal industry, the supply side of the reform, we must first realize "clearing capacity" to establish exit mechanism and corporate staffing mineral resources compensation system, eliminating the backward, in order to protect the advanced!
    Secondly, last week, mills in Tangshan Songjeong staff pay talks and collective jumping onslaught. It should be said coal companies worse than steel business benefits, employees are more difficult, but the coal people sincerely hope to be more strong and optimistic. No matter what happens, no matter how difficult the moment, "always want to continue living!"



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